Key Points

• Sanctioned Russian LNG tanker reported on fire in Mediterranean
• Putin’s troops will have difficulty fulfilling planned advances, says Zelensky
• Russian army sees slowest advance since 2024 after Starlink snapped
• ‘I’m not the best father’: Zelensky shares personal impact of war
• Kyiv sees EU membership as key to Ukraine’s future

Analysis: We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

21:00 , Maira Butt

Four years ago, on February 24 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that his forces had begun a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the reasons for which we have explored here. Within minutes, explosions were heard in major Ukrainian cities as Russian troops flooded across the border.

Russian forces made swift gains, capturing key areas near the capital of Kyiv. But the offensive soon stalled and, by December, Russia had been forced to withdraw its forces and consolidate in the east where the war has ground on ever since.

We asked Stefan Wolff, Tetyana Malyarenko, Scott Lucas and Mark Webber, four regular contributors to the Conversation UK’s coverage of Ukraine, for their take on the most surprising development of the war so far and its likely trajectory from here.

Read the full story below.

We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

In pictures: Aftermath of Russian strikes on a passenger train

20:00 , Maira Butt

Ukraine receives $1.5bn under new IMF deal

19:30 , Maira Butt

Ukraine has received $1.5 billion under the first tranche under the new 4-year IMF EFF program. The funds will be directed to finance priority expenditures.

“We continue implementing agreed reforms to strengthen resilience, governance, and recovery,” said Sergii Marchenko the minister of finance.

EU ‘concerned’ but not planning emergency response after Iran-driven energy spike

19:00 , Maira Butt

The European Union has warned member states about soaring gas prices caused by the ongoing crisis in Iran and the Middle East, but reassured members by saying that it saw no immediate threat to supplies and was not planning an emergency response, officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

Global oil and gas markets have been jolted by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s attacks across the Middle East, halting Qatari LNG production and energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The European Commission told EU members by video calls on Wednesday that it was concerned about soaring oil and gas prices, but said there was no immediate risk to EU supplies, four officials familiar with the discussions said.

The Commission said, for now, the EU was not planning emergency measures in response.

Watch: Trump defense official tells MAGA senator that ‘Canada needs to step up’ militarily on Russia threat

18:30 , Maira Butt

Egypt denies ties to Russian LNG tanker that sank in Mediterranean

18:02 , James Reynolds

Egypt’s petroleum ministry denied any connection with a Russian gas tanker that sank in the Mediterranean on Wednesday.

The Egyptian petroleum ministry said in a statement that the tanker was not bound for any of Egypt’s ports and was not listed under supply or LNG cargo contracts to the country.

Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the ship, which sank in waters between Libya and Malta after catching fire a day earlier.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation said earlier on Wednesday it had no involvement with the tanker, adding that it was en route to Egypt’s Port Said.

Russia blames Ukrainian sea drones for attacking tanker that sank in the Mediterranean

18:00 , Maira Butt

A Russian-flagged tanker carrying liquefied natural gas exploded and erupted in flames before sinking in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Libya, authorities in the North African country said Wednesday, and Russia blamed the sinking on an attack by Ukrainian sea drones.

According to the Libyan Maritime Authority, there were “sudden explosions, followed by a massive fire” on the Arctic Metagaz on Tuesday, while the LNG carrier was about 240 kilometers (150 miles) off the coast of the Libyan city of Sirte.

The tanker, carrying 61,000 tons of LNG, “completely sank” between Libya and Malta, a statement said. All 30 crew members were rescued and put on another vessel heading to the Libyan city of Benghazi, it said.

Russia’s Transport Ministry said that the vessel was hit by Ukrainian sea drones launched from the Libyan coast. Ukrainian officials made no immediate comment on the accusation.

Read the full story below.

Russia blames Ukrainian sea drones for attacking tanker that sank in the Mediterranean

EU diplomat Kallas warns ‘can’t let Ukraine slip off the table’ amidst Iran crisis

17:30 , Maira Butt

The European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas warned that the crisis in the Middle East is drawing attention away from Ukraine, she told reporters on Wednesday.

“We can’t let it slip off the table,” she said.

Ms Kallas said that Iran’s government is making a strong case for its demise by indiscriminately attacking its neighbours.

“Iran’s strategy is to sow chaos and set the region on fire.”

Germany joins Paralympics opening ceremony boycott in solidarity with Ukraine amid Russia’s return

17:00 , Maira Butt

German athletes will not participate in the teams’ parade at the Milano Cortina Paralympics opening ceremony on Friday, the German Paralympic Committee announced, stating their decision was made to express solidarity with Ukraine.

The move highlights growing tensions surrounding the Games, particularly after Russia and Belarus were granted participation spots despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Germany is now the latest nation to publicly declare it will skip the opening ceremony parade.

At least eight other teams are also set to boycott the event, while other countries have confirmed they will not be sending officials, underscoring a widespread unease among participating nations.

Germany joins Paralympics opening ceremony boycott amid Russia’s return

At least five injured in Russian strikes on Ukrainian railways

16:30 , Maira Butt

Five people were injured in two Russian attacks on railway infrastructure in southern Ukraine on Wednesday, officials aid.

The casualties included a railway worker who was hurt in a drone strike, which hit an empty passenger train in the morning in the Mykolaiv region, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said on Telegram.

Another worker and two children were later injured when a Russian missile hit an administrative building at a railway station in the neighbouring Odesa region, he said.

An official later updated the number of injured in the missile attack to four, without saying who the fourth person was.

In pictures: Putin attends the annual extended session of the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ board

16:00 , Bryony Gooch

Russia prepared to divert oil to India as Middle East conflict disrupts flows, source says

15:30 , Bryony Gooch

Russia is ready to divert oil to India to offset Middle East supply disruptions, with about 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude in vessels near Indian waters and able to arrive within weeks, an industry source with direct knowledge told Reuters.

The source declined to say where the non-Russian fleet cargoes were originally headed but said they could deliver to India within weeks, giving refiners rapid relief.

India is vulnerable to supply shocks, with crude stocks covering only about 25 days of demand, while refiners hold similarly limited inventories of gasoil, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas.

An Indian government source said New Delhi was scouting for alternative supply to prepare for continuing conflict in the Middle East beyond 10-15 days.

Watch: Five injured in Ukrainian drone attack on major Russian oil terminal

15:00 , Bryony Gooch

Hungary foreign minister hopes to have two ethnic Hungarian prisoners of war freed by Russia

14:30 , Bryony Gooch

Hungary’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said on ⁠Wednesday that he hopes to have ⁠two ethnic ​Hungarian prisoners ⁠of war freed ⁠by Russia ​during ⁠his talks in ‌Moscow.

“I hope that after our ‌talks more ‌people will fly home ⁠on the plane than who came in this direction,” Szijjarto said in a video ‌broadcast on ​his ‌Facebook page ⁠from Moscow ⁠before his talks with ‌Russia’s ​president ‌Vladimir Putin.

Putin accuses Ukraine of ‘energy blackmail’ as he meets with Hungary’s foreign minister

14:00 , Bryony Gooch

Russian president Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto later on Wednesday after accusing Ukraine of “blackmailing” of Slovakia and Hungary over oil supplies, the Kremlin said.

Kyiv has said that the Ukrainian branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, ⁠which supplies Russian ​oil ⁠to Hungary and Slovakia, was severely damaged by fire after a Russian attack in late January and cannot be repaired quickly.

Hungary and Slovakia have both accused Ukraine – which has long been unhappy about them continuing to buy Russian oil – of deliberately dragging its feet over the repairs for political reasons.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would discuss the matter with Szijjarto, a frequent visitor to Moscow, later on Wednesday.

“You know the buyers of our oil, such as Hungary and Slovakia, who are now facing blackmail from the Kyiv regime. This refers to blackmail related to the deliberate blocking of supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Of course, this will be discussed today,” said Peskov.

In pictures: Ukrainian soldiers install barbed wire near a front line near Kupiansk

13:30 , Bryony Gooch

Even in Ukraine’s ghost towns there are people who will not leave

13:00 , Bryony Gooch

Even in Ukraine’s ghost towns there are people – those who will not leave

In pictures: Ukrainian politician and weightlifter Artem Dmytruk arriving at Westminster Magistrates’ Court for a hearing on extradition

12:30 , Bryony Gooch

Watch: Trump defense official tells MAGA senator that ‘Canada needs to step up’ militarily on Russia threat

12:00 , Bryony Gooch

In pictures: Passenger train hit by Russian drone strike in Mykolaiv

11:30 , Bryony Gooch

Russian drone hits empty passenger train in Ukraine’s south, deputy PM says

11:00 , Bryony Gooch

A Russian drone ​hit an empty passenger train in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region early on Wednesday, injuring a railway worker, ⁠deputy prime minister Oleksiy Kuleba said.

He added that there was also an attempted Russian drone attack on a train ⁠operating between ​the eastern-central ⁠city of Dnipro and Kovel in the northwest late ⁠on Tuesday, but it was stopped by ​railway ⁠workers and the ‌drone hit a few metres away from the locomotive.

Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukrainian national railways, said that Russia had intensified drone attacks on railway infrastructure, and that rolling stock was among the main targets.

It reported that 18 strikes had been recorded since the start of March, damaging 41 facilities. Locomotives, freight cars and specialised equipment used to repair infrastructure have also been targeted, the operator said, and railway depots and bridges had also come under attack this month. A Russian drone attack on a commuter train in Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and wounded even more people on Monday.

Four experts on the future of the Ukraine-Russia war

10:30 , Bryony Gooch

We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

Ukraine receives $1.5bn under new IMF deal

10:00 , Bryony Gooch

Ukraine has received $1.5 billion under the first tranche under the new 4-year IMF EFF program. The funds will be directed to finance priority expenditures.

“We continue implementing agreed reforms to strengthen resilience, governance, and recovery,” said Sergii Marchenko the minister of finance.

Russia accuse Ukraine of attacking Arctic Metagaz tanker in Meditteranean

09:30 , Bryony Gooch

​Russia’s transport ministry said on Wednesday that Ukrainian ⁠naval drones were responsible for an attack on ⁠a ​Russian ship ⁠carrying gas – Arctic Metagaz – which ⁠caught fire ​in ⁠the Mediterranean ‌a day earlier.

The ministry said the ‌attack was “an ‌act of international terrorism” and that ⁠all 30 crew members, who were Russian nationals, were safe. The Security Service of Ukraine ‌did not respond ​to a ‌request.

Trump’s Iran attack rattles Russian hardliners who call for Putin to double down on war in Ukraine

09:00 , Bryony Gooch

When president Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, some Russian hardliners were cautiously optimistic, hoping his unpredictability and transactional nature might benefit Moscow on Ukraine.

But his attack on Iran means many now see him as a growing threat to Russia itself and are questioning if Trump is the pragmatic, potentially pro-Moscow strongman ready to deal in realpolitik that they thought he was.

Some hawks are publicly demanding that Moscow abandon US-brokered peace talks with Ukraine and double down on fighting there instead, arguing that the US-Iran nuclear talks which preceded the US-Israeli air war were a cynical ploy which showed Washington cannot be trusted.

“The unprincipled United States is a threat to the entire world,” said nationalist tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev, who is married to a top Kremlin official. “This is the United States we are trying to negotiate with regarding Ukraine. Yes, it wants a weak Europe. But it also wants a weak Russia.”

Boris Rozhin, an influential war blogger who goes by the moniker, “Colonel Cassad” and has nearly 800,000 followers on the Telegram app, said Trump was a monster, driven mad by impunity.

“To seriously count on any agreements or deals with it (the monster) is either foolishness or treason,” opined Rozhin.

Russia’s budget deficit much bigger than official figures, German intelligence claims

08:23 , Stuti Mishra

Russia’s true federal budget deficit in 2025 exceeded 2.36 trillion roubles (£24bn), far above official figures, as Moscow sought to hide the real costs of its war in Ukraine, Germany’s BND intelligence service claimed today.

In a LinkedIn post, the agency said Western sanctions were having a “clear effect” and that concealing economic damage made Russia an “incalculable risk” for investment.

“Putin is sacrificing Russia’s economic future for his imperial goals,” the intelligence service said.

Druzhba oil pipeline damaged by fire after Russian strike, minister says

07:30 , Stuti Mishra

The Ukrainian branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, was severely ⁠damaged by fire after a Russian attack, Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal told Interfax Ukraine on Tuesday.

“Most of the internal equipment of the oil ⁠pipeline, various sensors and other ​equipment ⁠inside the oil pipeline were damaged by temperature conditions,” Shmyhal was quoted as saying.

Oil shipments through the pipeline primarily operated by Russia have been suspended since January 27 after what Kyiv says was a Russian attack on pumping installations in western Ukraine, prompting a dispute within the European Union and efforts by Hungary to block new sanctions on Russia. Hungary, in addition, has accused Ukraine of meddling in its April elections and has blocked a 90 billion euro EU loan to Kyiv.

Russia halts construction work at Bushehr nuclear plant due to strikes on Iran

07:00 , Stuti Mishra

Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has halted construction work at new units of Iran’s nuclear power plant in ⁠the port city of Bushehr because of the U.S.-Israeli air assault on Iran, its chief Alexei Likhachev said on Tuesday.

Likhachev had earlier warned of the ⁠threat posed by ​strikes near Iranian ⁠nuclear facilities, and said explosions could be heard “just kilometres away” from the plant, although the facility itself was not being targeted.

Russia’s Central Bank sues EU over indefinite freeze on assets

06:30 , Stuti Mishra

Russia’s Central Bank said yesterday it had filed a legal challenge at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg against the bloc’s indefinite freezing of approximately €210 billion in Russian assets, arguing the measures violated its property rights, right to justice, and the principle of sovereign immunity.

The claim, submitted on Friday, follows the European Parliament’s December decision to make the asset freeze permanent, having previously reviewed it every six months — a process that left it vulnerable to vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia. That same month, Russia’s Central Bank sued Belgian bank Euroclear, where around €190 billion of Russian state assets are held, in a Moscow commercial court.

It marks Russia’s first litigation against the EU at the General Court. The move comes amid ongoing discussions over using the frozen assets as collateral for a loan to Ukraine — a plan whose legality remains disputed. An expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies argued that the EU’s approach of “using” rather than seizing the assets minimised its legal exposure, though the question is far from settled.

Belgium imposes 10 million euro bail on seized Russian oil tanker

06:00 , Stuti Mishra

Belgium has imposed a 10 million euro ($11.61 million) bail on Russian ​oil tanker Ethera, which it

seized on Sunday, the government said ‌on Tuesday.

The North Sea ministry said the tanker was part of a Russian shadow fleet sailing with a false flag and false documents.

“Forty-five violations ​were identified. These mainly involved false certificates, stemming from ​the discovery that the ship was sailing under a ⁠false Guinean flag,” it said in a statement.

The Ethera can ​sail again only after the sum is paid and a follow‑up ​inspection confirms compliance, including securing a flag state, obtaining valid certificates and fixing the technical issues.

“Our government is taking firm action against vessels in the ​shadow fleet. With this operation, we are enforcing EU sanctions, ​protecting the North Sea, and curbing the financing of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” ‌Defence ⁠Minister Theo Francken said.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia for invading Ukraine and aimed at cutting its oil revenues have led to the rise of a “shadow fleet” of tankers helping Moscow to keep ​its crude exports ​flowing.

Middle East conflict risks diverting attention from Ukraine, Zelensky says

05:30 , Stuti Mishra

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has cautioned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East risks leaving Ukraine short of critical air defence missiles, as Western allies face competing demands on their weapons stocks.

In an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, he said there was also a danger that Ukraine’s partners could lose focus on Kyiv’s defence against Russia.

“We could find ourselves having difficulty obtaining missiles and weapons to defend our skies,” he said. “The Americans and their allies in the Middle East might need them to defend themselves, for example Patriot missiles.”

Zelensky acknowledged the threat posed by a broader regional escalation when asked whether Washington and Brussels risked sidelining Ukraine’s needs amid the Middle East crisis. “Of course, it’s a risk. But I hope the Iranian crisis remains a limited operation and doesn’t turn into a long war. We know first-hand how bloody it risks being,” he said.

Ukraine must not be forced into territorial concessions, Merz tells Trump

05:00 , Stuti Mishra

German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he told Donald Trump during White House talks that Ukraine must not be forced into further territorial concessions, and stressed the need for continued support for Kyiv, which last week marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“We all want to see this war coming to an end as soon as possible. But Ukraine has to preserve its territory and their security interests,” Mr Merz told reporters at the start of his third visit to the Oval Office, adding that he showed Mr Trump a map of war-torn Ukraine and believed the US president had understood his point.

Merz says he urged Trump to increase pressure on Putin

04:30 , Stuti Mishra

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking after a meeting with Donald Trump yesterday, said he had urged the president to put pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine.

“Russia is playing for time here, and in doing so is also acting against the will of the American president. In today’s talks, I called for increasing the pressure on Moscow,” he told reporters.

The United States, Russia and Ukraine are taking part in trilateral talks aimed at securing a peace deal. Mr Merz though said only a pact supported by Europe could be lasting.

“We are not prepared to accept an agreement that is negotiated over our heads,” he said.

Watch: Trump says he is ‘working very hard to end the slaughter’ in Ukraine

04:03 , Stuti Mishra

Sanctioned Russian LNG tanker reported on fire in Mediterranean

03:30 , Stuti Mishra

A Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker linked to Moscow’s “shadow fleet” has reportedly caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea, according to maritime sources cited by Reuters.

The vessel, identified as the Arctic Metagaz, was said to be ablaze early on Monday. Some reports placed the incident near Malta, while others suggested the fire may have started closer to the Libyan coast.

Images circulating on social media appeared to show flames coming from the ship, though there was no immediate information about the condition of the crew.

One maritime source told Reuters the blaze could have been caused by a Ukrainian naval drone attack, but the cause has not been confirmed. Ukraine’s military has not commented.

The tanker is believed to be part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet – ships with opaque ownership structures used to transport Russian energy exports despite Western sanctions.

Russia keen to break Ukraine peace talks deadlock

03:00 , Bryony Gooch

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Analysis: The two ways to overcome the Ukraine-Russia stalemate

02:00 , Bryony Gooch

Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham

For me, the biggest surprise so far has been the resilience and adaptability of the Ukrainian war effort. Most observers, myself included, assumed in 2022 that the Ukrainians would buckle under the Russian onslaught.

Nato-led training programmes have undoubtedly been important for Ukrainian defenders. But seemingly more vital has been the determination provided by national identity. Putin’s 2022 claims that Ukraine had been committing genocide against Russian speakers and that its government was a neo-Nazi dictatorship were both spurious and counterproductive.

I too believe Russia’s war methods in Ukraine were grimly predictable. Waves of infantry assaults designed to overwhelm defences through sheer volume have been a recurring strategy in previous Russian military campaigns in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria.

But this strategy has resulted in a stalemate in Ukraine with the frontlines effectively frozen. There are two things that could alter this. The first is a change of approach by China, which has effectively subsidised Russia’s war effort through technology transfers and energy purchases.

Beijing could cut off some of the technology it provides Russia and exert pressure on Moscow to encourage flexibility in the peace negotiations. But, at present, it has no interest in abandoning Russia. Their alliance is a way of balancing the US and Nato in the global competition for influence.

The second possible agent of change is a massive armament effort on behalf of Ukraine. This would require Germany, France and Britain to boost already significant arms provisions and to allow their use in a manner that is not constrained by fears of escalation.

However, this scenario also seems unlikely. These three countries lack the domestic political imperative to back Ukraine to victory. And the US, which was overly cautious even under the presidency of Joe Biden, has now left the field of battle.

In pictures: Zelensky gives press conference in Kyiv

01:00 , Bryony Gooch

Watch: Zelensky calls Ukrainian air defence skills ‘irreplaceable’ amid Europe’s growing role in Iran conflict

00:00 , Bryony Gooch

Oman and Russia have calls to discuss situation around Iran

Tuesday 3 March 2026 23:00 , Bryony Gooch

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov held a ⁠phone call on Tuesday with his ⁠Omani counterpart ​Badr Albusaidi ⁠to discuss the ⁠situation around ​Iran, the ⁠Russian Foreign ‌Ministry said.

The ministers urged the ‌earliest possible ‌halt to hostilities and a ⁠return to political and diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Both sides said they ‌were ready, ​including ‌at the ⁠United Nations, to support peaceful, compromise solutions based on international law.

Russia bans a prominent LGBTQ+ rights group as extremist in a new blow to the beleaguered community

Tuesday 3 March 2026 22:00 , Bryony Gooch

A court in Russia on Tuesday designated a prominent LGBTQ+ rights group as an extremist organization, the latest blow to the country’s beleaguered community that has faced an intensified crackdown in recent years under president Vladimir Putin.

In a hearing that took place behind closed doors, the St. Petersburg City Court banned the Coming Out group as “extremist.” The authorities did not reveal any details of the lawsuit filed last month by Russia’s Justice Ministry and classified as secret.

The group, which now operates from abroad, said it will continue to help LGBTQ+ people in Russia and beyond, and fight for their rights despite the ruling.

“We have been preparing for this development for a long time. We enhanced security, developed sustainable work formats and continue to act responsibly, first and foremost for those who count on us,” Coming Out said in an online statement.

“Today it is especially important not to give into fear and not to be alone. Our community is stronger than any labels, and history has proven that.”

Coming Out is the first LGBTQ+ rights group to be designated since the 2023 Supreme Court ruling that effectively banned any LGBTQ+ activism.

Russia’s LGBTQ+ community has been under legal and public pressure for over a decade, but especially since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine four years ago. Putin has argued that the war in Ukraine is a proxy battle with the West, which he says aims to destroy Russia and its “traditional family values” by pushing for LGBTQ+ rights.

Five injured in huge Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian port

Tuesday 3 March 2026 21:00 , Bryony Gooch

Five injured in huge Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian port city

Watch: Trump says he is ‘working very hard to end the slaughter’ in Ukraine

Tuesday 3 March 2026 20:00 , Bryony Gooch

Russia halts construction work at Bushehr nuclear plant due to strikes on Iran

Tuesday 3 March 2026 19:00 , Bryony Gooch

Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has halted construction work at new units of Iran’s nuclear power plant in ⁠the port city of Bushehr because of the U.S.-Israeli air assault on Iran, its chief Alexei Likhachev said on Tuesday.

Likhachev had earlier warned of the ⁠threat posed by ​strikes near Iranian ⁠nuclear facilities, and said explosions could be heard “just kilometres away” from the plant, although the facility itself was not being targeted.

‘I’m not the best father’: Zelensky shares personal impact of war

Tuesday 3 March 2026 18:00 , Bryony Gooch

‘I’m not the best father’: Zelensky shares rare insight into personal impact of war

Analysis: Putin’s hopes are pinned on Trump

Tuesday 3 March 2026 17:01 , Bryony Gooch

Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University College Dublin

On the day the war broke out, I was in a discussion group of political and military analysts. When we got the news that Russian special forces had landed at the Hostomel airbase near Kyiv, each of us thought the capital would fall within a few weeks.

However, four years have passed and Ukraine now controls more territory than it did in June 2022. This is despite facing the second-most powerful military in the world, Russia’s disinformation assault and political warfare trying to split Europe, and abandonment by the Trump camp.

The Russian president’s unwillingness to give up his quest for Ukraine as part of a “Greater Russia” and the Trump camp’s willingness to sacrifice Ukrainian and European security are less of a surprise.

Putin made clear in an essay in 2021 that this would be his legacy project. So any soundbites about “peace around the corner” – particularly from Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – are cynical declarations or wishful thinking.

The Kremlin will not accept less than the seizure of all of the strategic Donetsk region, the rest of the country without effective security guarantees, and the fall of the Zelensky government. Putin cannot accept less because this would be the failure of his project at the cost of 1.3 million casualties and counting.

His hope is that Trump’s envoys will enable him to achieve what he cannot on the battlefield. The Trumpists do not believe in alliance but in transactional relationships, which is why the Kremlin is now dangling joint economic projects in front of the US government.

But, irrespective of this, I see no change in the war’s trajectory in the near future. A negotiated end to the invasion is close to impossible because of the Kremlin’s quest for “victory” through Kyiv’s capitulation. That capitulation is unlikely.

Russia has made only marginal advances on the ground. And Zelensky is maintaining his line over sovereignty, territory and security. Although Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged, most Ukrainians support continued resistance.

While cumbersome in its support, which has been complicated by pro-Kremlin figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the EU is also stepping up its backing of Kyiv and partially filling the gap that has been left by Trump.

The Kremlin is facing a tightening of economic constraints on its quest. It is cutting social spending and increasing taxes to maintain the war. However, as there has been no widespread public pressure domestically that could curb the Kremlin’s ambitions, the invasion will grind on.

Ukraine attacks hit 13 Russian oil facilities over January and February, defence ministry says

Tuesday 3 March 2026 16:00 , Bryony Gooch

Ukrainian military attacks struck 13 Russian oil ⁠refineries, oil depots and other oil ⁠and ​gas sector facilities ⁠in January and ⁠February, Ukraine’s ​defence ⁠ministry said on ‌Tuesday.

The ministry added in ‌a statement on ‌Telegram that the military ⁠has carried out more than 40 strikes in Russia on the oil and ‌gas ​sector, military ‌industrial ⁠facilities and ⁠command centres, among other ‌targets.

Druzhba oil pipeline damaged by fire after Russian strike, minister says

Tuesday 3 March 2026 15:30 , Bryony Gooch

The Ukrainian branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, was severely ⁠damaged by fire after a Russian attack, Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal told Interfax Ukraine on Tuesday.

“Most of the internal equipment of the oil ⁠pipeline, various sensors and other ​equipment ⁠inside the oil pipeline were damaged by temperature conditions,” Shmyhal was quoted as saying.

Oil shipments through the pipeline primarily operated by Russia have been suspended since January 27 after what Kyiv says was a Russian attack on pumping installations in western Ukraine, prompting a dispute within the European Union and efforts by Hungary to block new sanctions on Russia. Hungary, in addition, has accused Ukraine of meddling in its April elections and has blocked a 90 billion euro EU loan to Kyiv.

Zelensky and UAE agree to work together on ‘protecting lives’

Tuesday 3 March 2026 15:00 , Bryony Gooch

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday ⁠he had a call with ⁠United ​Arab Emirates president ⁠Mohamed bin ⁠Zayed Al ​Nahyan and ⁠discussed ‌Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure.

“We discussed ‌how we ‌can help in ⁠this situation and support the protection of lives. It was agreed that ‌our ​teams will ‌work on ⁠this,” Zelensky ⁠said on ‌X.

Russia says war could backfire by spurring Iran and Arab nations to seek nuclear weapons

Tuesday 3 March 2026 14:30 , Bryony Gooch

Russia warned on Tuesday that the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran could result in the very outcome they were seeking to prevent, by spurring both Iran and its Arab neighbours to seek to acquire nuclear weapons.

US president Donald Trump cited Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons – something Tehran denies – as one of the reasons why the United States and Israel launched attacks on Saturday that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, igniting a war that has spread across the Middle East.

Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the logical consequence would be that “forces will emerge in Iran… in favour of doing exactly what the Americans want to avoid “acquiring a nuclear bomb. Because the US doesn’t attack those who have nuclear bombs.”

Lavrov told a press conference that Arab countries could also join the race to build a bomb. The risk was now growing that “the nuclear proliferation problem will begin to spiral out of control”, he said.

“The seemingly paradoxical declared noble goal of starting a war to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons could stimulate completely opposite trends.”

He said Moscow had still seen no evidence that Iran was developing nuclear weapons. Israel is widely seen as the region’s only nuclear-armed state, which it neither confirms nor denies.

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Tuesday 3 March 2026 14:00 , Bryony Gooch

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Russian Central Bank sues European Union over regulation blocking billions in assets

Tuesday 3 March 2026 13:30 , Bryony Gooch

The Russian Central Bank is suing the European Union over regulation blocking its assets. The bank has submitted a legal claim to challenge what it calls the European Union’s “unlawful actions” against its sovereign assets.

EU Council regulation imposed 12 December last year caused an indefinite freeze on the bank’s assets, the bank said. This is believed to have deprived Russia of access to about $300 billion in reserves.

The disputed regulation also excludes the possibility of judicial protection of the infringed rights to the assets, including through the enforcement of any court decisions or arbitration rulings.

“As a result, the EU Regulation violates the basic and inalienable rights to access justice, inviolability of property, and the principle of sovereign immunity of States and their central banks, guaranteed by international treaties and European Union law, which contradicts the fundamentals of the rule of law and cannot be regarded as compatible with the principle of supremacy of law,” the CBR said in a statement on its website.

Four experts on the future of the Ukraine-Russia war

Tuesday 3 March 2026 13:00 , Bryony Gooch

We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

Russia-Ukraine peace talks may have to move due to events from the Gulf

Tuesday 3 March 2026 12:30 , Bryony Gooch

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested if conflict continues in the Gulf, then talks between Russia and Ukraine may have to move from Abu Dhabi.

Talks were originally expected to take place between the 5th or 8th of March in Abu Dhabi, proposed by the United States.

He has said that Ukraine is prepared to meet in Switzerland or Turkey.

Watch: Five injured in Ukrainian drone attack on major Russian oil terminal

Tuesday 3 March 2026 12:00 , Bryony Gooch

In pictures: Cars and buildings destroyed in Russian attack on Donetzk

Tuesday 3 March 2026 11:30 , Bryony Gooch

Ukraine’s military makes gains in southeast region of Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv says

Tuesday 3 March 2026 11:00 , Arpan Rai

Ukrainian troops have retaken nine settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region since the end of January and are pressing ahead with a counterattack along the southeastern frontline, the Ukrainian general staff said on Monday.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that over the last month, for the first time since summer 2024, Ukrainian troops have regained control over more territory than Russian forces had been able to capture.

Reports of Ukrainian advances in the Zaporizhzhia region started after Russian forces experienced sweeping outages of their Starlink communications terminals on the battlefield, following a decision by SpaceX owner Elon Musk to shut them down in response to a plea from Kyiv in late January.

A Ukrainian battlefield mapping project DeepState said that the Russian troops occupied 126 square kilometres (49 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in February, a 20-month low.

“We have survived this difficult battle for winter,” Syrskyi said on the Telegram app.

Over the winter Russian forces intensified their campaign of strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, leaving millions in the cold and dark. They also increased pressure on Ukraine’s exhausted and thinly stretched troops along the 1,200-km frontline.

But Ukraine held out, Syrskyi said.

The Ukrainian troops conducted effective operations in the Zaporizhzhia region near Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole, strengthened their control over the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region of the northeast, and maintained their defences near the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region in the east, he said.

Recap: Russia will have difficulty fulfilling planned advances, says Zelensky

Tuesday 3 March 2026 10:30 , Bryony Gooch

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Russia’s ​military had failed to achieve aims it set out last year and would have difficulty fulfilling advances he said Moscow hoped to achieve.

Zelensky, addressing journalists in Kyiv, said Moscow’s plans of ⁠seizing all of eastern Ukraine and areas further south remained unchanged. But he said Moscow also hoped to advance towards the southeastern city of Dnipro and was also considering how to make gains in the southern Odesa region on the Black Sea.

He said Ukraine had secured maps outlining Russian plans for 2026-2027 but the maps had “nothing in common with reality” because Russia could not accomplish the task.

“We understand what they want. We understand that their directions remain current – the occupation of the east of our country, specifically the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” he said.

“They certainly want to continue in the direction of the Zaporizhzhia region and toward the city of Dnipro. And although it is difficult for them, they are looking toward the Odesa region.”

For the moment, he said, Ukraine “does not see that they have the capability to accomplish the tasks we saw on those maps” but the state of things would depend on the supply of weapons to Kyiv and on Ukraine’s own domestic production.

Ukraine could help down Iran’s drones, if partners broker ceasefire, minister says

Tuesday 3 March 2026 10:00 , Arpan Rai

Ukraine could send drone specialists to the Middle East and share capabilities and expertise to help down Iranian drones if its partners help to broker a ceasefire in its four-year war with Russia, foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said.

Sybiha said that Ukraine’s effectiveness in intercepting Iranian-made ‘Shahed’ drones had reached up to 90 per cent, thanks in part to using domestically produced interceptor drones.

“We won’t be able to send all of our operators, but we can certainly send some of them if the absence of Russian strikes against our country is guaranteed,” Sybiha said.

Why Ukraine has superior expertise over Iranian Shahed drones

Tuesday 3 March 2026 09:30 , Arpan Rai

After Russia’s botched attempt to capture Ukrainian capital Kyiv after its full-scale invasion with tanks, troops and missiles in February 2022, the fighting has turned into a war of attrition that has been increasingly shaped by drones.

While swarms of small drones have played a decisive role on the battlefield, both Russia and Ukraine also have increasingly relied on longer-range drones to attack deep into each other’s territory.

After reaching a deal with Tehran to import Shahed drones early in the war — Shahed means “witness” in Farsi — Russia localized their production. Russian engineers have increased its altitude, made it more jamming-resistant and fitted it with more powerful warheads.

The Russian replica of the Shahed — called “Geran,” or “geranium” — has been put in production at a plant in the Russian province of Tatarstan that has exponentially increased output. Since then, Russia has battered Ukraine with hundreds of drones in a single night – more than were used during some entire months in 2024.

By using large numbers in a single attack, Moscow’s strategists seek to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and distract them from engaging more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles that Moscow often uses alongside the drones to hit high-value targets.

And while it flies slow at 180 kph (just over 110 mph), it can range as far as 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) and carry a relatively big load of 40 kilograms (88 pounds) of explosives. Ukrainians have dubbed them “mopeds” for their distinctive buzz.

Ukraine has relied on mobile teams armed with machine guns as a low-cost response to the drones to spare using more-expensive Western-supplied air defense missiles. It also has developed interceptor drones and is working to scale up production, but the steady rise in Russian attacks has strained its defences.

Zelensky: Ukraine will send drone defence specialists to the Middle East if they help with a ceasefire

Tuesday 3 March 2026 09:00 , Bryony Gooch

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to send drone defence specialists to protect Middle East cities if nations they help it get a ceasefire with Russia.

He said: “The Middle East has close economic ties, relations with the Russian Federation, and has influence. If they give Russia a signal to ceasefire, for a certain period of time…

“We can then send our specialists to protect the civilian population,” he said.

Zelensky says peace talks not cancelled amid Gulf conflict but venue can change from Abu Dhabi

Tuesday 3 March 2026 08:30 , Arpan Rai

Volodymyr Zelensky has said the conflict in the Middle East due to the US-Israel military escalation against Iran has not yet cancelled the planned trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US.

The three delegations were set to meet in Abu Dhabi this week but the Iranian retaliation of the GZelensky says peace talks not cancelled amid Gulf conflict but venue can change from Abu Dhabiulf region has left the scheduled talks in jeopardy.

Zelensky said while he could not confirm the venue, “no one has cancelled” the meeting so far.

“Due to the current military conflict, we cannot confirm that the meeting will take place in Abu Dhabi, but nonetheless, no one has cancelled it. The meeting must take place; it is important to us. We support this meeting,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky said if the talks cannot be held in Abu Dhabi due to the security situation, other venues where previous negotiations took place could be used.

“If there are difficulties with Abu Dhabi due to missiles and drones, then I think we have Türkiye, we have Switzerland – venues that have already worked and allowed us all to meet. We will definitely support any of these three venues for the meeting. We are waiting for a response from our partners,” Zelensky said.

The talks are most likely to take place on 5-6 March, Zelensky said.

Russian officials have not issued a comment on the planned trilateral talks.

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Tuesday 3 March 2026 08:00 , Arpan Rai

The Kremlin has affirmed its continued interest in peace talks with Ukraine, stating on Monday that a diplomatic settlement remains its preferred path to end the conflict.

This declaration comes despite recent reports suggesting a growing reluctance from Russian officials to engage further in negotiations.

Peace talks have appeared deadlocked in recent weeks, primarily over Russia’s insistence that Ukraine cede control of the remaining parts of its eastern Donbas region – a demand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected.

A Bloomberg News report on Saturday, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicated that Russian officials increasingly saw little reason to continue the US-led talks unless Kyiv signalled a willingness to surrender territory.

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Russian army sees slowest advance since 2024 after Starlink snapped

Tuesday 3 March 2026 07:30 , Arpan Rai

The Russian army has seen its slowest advance on the war frontline in nearly two years, a US-based think tank monitoring the conflict has said.

At the same time, Kyiv’s troops scored several localised breakthroughs, an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War said, adding that Ukrainian forces saw the most success along the southern frontline and pushing back Russian army in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Moscow has been grinding forward in the east, moving closer towards the key hubs of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and occupies just over 19 per cent of Ukraine, the ISW said.

Ukrainian troops managed several localised advances during February, with a 61 sq km gain on 15 February and gains of more 50 sq km on 21 February and 23 February.

The gains for Ukraine also coincided with Russian troops slowing down at the frontline after Elon Musk cut the Starlink access for Moscow’s forces.

Putin’s troops will have difficulty fulfilling planned advances, says Zelensky

Tuesday 3 March 2026 07:00 , Arpan Rai

Russia’s military had failed to achieve aims it set out last year and would have difficulty fulfilling advances ​he said Moscow hoped to achieve, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Addressing journalists in Kyiv, Zelensky said ‌Moscow’s plans of seizing all of eastern Ukraine and areas further south remained unchanged.

The Ukrainian leader added that Moscow also hoped to advance towards the southeastern city of Dnipro and was also ​considering how to make gains in the southern Odesa region on ​the Black Sea.

Ukraine, he said, had secured maps outlining Russian plans ⁠for 2026-2027 but the maps had “nothing in common with reality” because Russia could ​not accomplish the task.

“We understand what they want. We understand that their directions ​remain current – the occupation of the east of our country, specifically the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” he said.

“They certainly want to continue in the direction of the Zaporizhzhia region and toward ​the city of Dnipro. And although it is difficult for them, they ​are looking toward the Odesa region,” Zelensky said.

“For the moment, he said, Ukraine “does not see that they have ‌the ⁠capability to accomplish the tasks we saw on those maps” but the state of things would depend on the supply of weapons to Kyiv and on Ukraine’s own domestic production.

Russia fines Ukrainian POW for ‘discrediting the military’

Tuesday 3 March 2026 06:30 , Arpan Rai

A Ukrainian prisoner of war has been reportedly fined 30,000 rubles (£289) for “discrediting” the Russian military while he was held in a Siberian penal colony on terrorism charges tied to defending Ukraine.

A court verdict from 25 February, reported by Russia’s independent outlet Mediazona, showed that the prisoner Anton Saikhiev said in the presence of two fellow inmates that the Russian military attacked and occupied Ukraine, killed civilians, and struck civilian facilities – a testimony they later used against him.

Saikhiev, 38, was captured while defending Mariupol in 2022 and was serving his sentence in Buryat Correctional Colony in Siberia’s Ulan-Ude on terrorism charges, which were imposed on him by Moscow due to his service with Ukraine’s Azov units.

“He stated that the Russian Army attacked Ukraine, occupied Ukrainian territory, and that its presence on Ukrainian territory was illegal, killing civilians and shelling Ukrainian social facilities with missiles,” the verdict claimed.

Officials in Ukraine have not issued a comment on the issue so far.

France and Germany move closer on joint nuclear deterrence

Tuesday 3 March 2026 06:00 , Arpan Rai

Several European nations have come out in support of French president Emmaneul Macron’s initiative to boost France’s nuclear arsenal and launch a European dialogue on nuclear deterrence.

France and Germany announced plans yesterday to deepen cooperation on nuclear deterrence, marking a significant shift in European defence policy as the continent faces rising threats from Russia and instability linked to the Iran conflict.

The countries will set up a high-level steering group to align strategy, according to a joint statement. Germany will join French nuclear exercises and inspections of strategic sites, while both aim to strengthen conventional and missile defence capabilities with other European partners.

Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands expressed support as Macron said the arsenal expansion was necessary to strenghten Europe’s defence while insisting it does not signal a new arms race.

Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said Denmark will contribute through joint exercises, training and air surveillance updates while stressing that the country will not host French nuclear weapons, according to broadcaster DR.

“It’s also about getting to the table and thus gaining increased access to information and strategic decisions,” she added.

Danish defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen stressed that cooperation with France does not mean that Denmark will house French nuclear weapons.

We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

Tuesday 3 March 2026 05:40 , Arpan Rai

Four years ago, on February 24 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that his forces had begun a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the reasons for which we have explored here. Within minutes, explosions were heard in major Ukrainian cities as Russian troops flooded across the border.

Russian forces made swift gains, capturing key areas near the capital of Kyiv. But the offensive soon stalled and, by December, Russia had been forced to withdraw its forces and consolidate in the east where the war has ground on ever since.

We asked Stefan Wolff, Tetyana Malyarenko, Scott Lucas and Mark Webber, four regular contributors to the Conversation UK’s coverage of Ukraine, for their take on the most surprising development of the war so far and its likely trajectory from here.

We’re experts on the Ukraine war. Here’s what we think will happen next

Why Ukraine has superior expertise over Iranian Shahed drones

Tuesday 3 March 2026 05:20 , Arpan Rai

After Russia’s botched attempt to capture Ukrainian capital Kyiv after its full-scale invasion with tanks, troops and missiles in February 2022, the fighting has turned into a war of attrition that has been increasingly shaped by drones.

While swarms of small drones have played a decisive role on the battlefield, both Russia and Ukraine also have increasingly relied on longer-range drones to attack deep into each other’s territory.

After reaching a deal with Tehran to import Shahed drones early in the war — Shahed means “witness” in Farsi — Russia localized their production. Russian engineers have increased its altitude, made it more jamming-resistant and fitted it with more powerful warheads.

The Russian replica of the Shahed — called “Geran,” or “geranium” — has been put in production at a plant in the Russian province of Tatarstan that has exponentially increased output. Since then, Russia has battered Ukraine with hundreds of drones in a single night – more than were used during some entire months in 2024.

By using large numbers in a single attack, Moscow’s strategists seek to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and distract them from engaging more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles that Moscow often uses alongside the drones to hit high-value targets.

And while it flies slow at 180 kph (just over 110 mph), it can range as far as 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) and carry a relatively big load of 40 kilograms (88 pounds) of explosives. Ukrainians have dubbed them “mopeds” for their distinctive buzz.

Ukraine has relied on mobile teams armed with machine guns as a low-cost response to the drones to spare using more-expensive Western-supplied air defense missiles. It also has developed interceptor drones and is working to scale up production, but the steady rise in Russian attacks has strained its defences.

Watch: Five injured in Ukrainian drone attack on major Russian oil terminal

Tuesday 3 March 2026 05:03 , Arpan Rai

Zelensky says peace talks not cancelled amid Gulf conflict but venue can change from Abu Dhabi

Tuesday 3 March 2026 04:36 , Arpan Rai

Volodymyr Zelensky has said the conflict in the Middle East due to the US-Israel military escalation against Iran has not yet cancelled the planned trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US.

The three delegations were set to meet in Abu Dhabi this week but the Iranian retaliation of the GZelensky says peace talks not cancelled amid Gulf conflict but venue can change from Abu Dhabiulf region has left the scheduled talks in jeopardy.

Zelensky said while he could not confirm the venue, “no one has cancelled” the meeting so far.

“Due to the current military conflict, we cannot confirm that the meeting will take place in Abu Dhabi, but nonetheless, no one has cancelled it. The meeting must take place; it is important to us. We support this meeting,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky said if the talks cannot be held in Abu Dhabi due to the security situation, other venues where previous negotiations took place could be used.

“If there are difficulties with Abu Dhabi due to missiles and drones, then I think we have Türkiye, we have Switzerland – venues that have already worked and allowed us all to meet. We will definitely support any of these three venues for the meeting. We are waiting for a response from our partners,” Zelensky said.

The talks are most likely to take place on 5-6 March, Zelensky said.

Russian officials have not issued a comment on the planned trilateral talks.

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse

Tuesday 3 March 2026 04:15 , Arpan Rai

The Kremlin has affirmed its continued interest in peace talks with Ukraine, stating on Monday that a diplomatic settlement remains its preferred path to end the conflict.

This declaration comes despite recent reports suggesting a growing reluctance from Russian officials to engage further in negotiations.

Peace talks have appeared deadlocked in recent weeks, primarily over Russia’s insistence that Ukraine cede control of the remaining parts of its eastern Donbas region – a demand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected.

A Bloomberg News report on Saturday, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicated that Russian officials increasingly saw little reason to continue the US-led talks unless Kyiv signalled a willingness to surrender territory.

Kremlin says Russia remains open to peace talks despite impasse